S&P500 – Fibonacci Statistics

admin S&P 500, Statistics

Fibonacci statistics, almost close at P95 = 1999.94 in VALUE and P75 in TIME (12 Dec). On Monday (15 Dec) P80 in TIME and IF lower than close Friday <P95 and P96 = 1991.50. First square shows P80 to P95 both in VALUE and TIME, second square P96 to P99.

Current VALUE is oversold and <P95 is extreme. In combination with monthly statistics it should turn within few trading days and become Bullish, second picture zoomed in.

The third picture shows where P80 (light red) and P90-P95 (dark red) have occurred since the end of 2011 until August of this year. In the picture is a table that says how often it occurs by the fact that it goes below a certain level in terms of percentiles.

Value <P95 is quite stable around 1-3 time per year and <P90 gives an increased frequency in really poor stock market years. IF it goes <P95 now in the short term, there have then been two times in 2014 last on 15 Oct, shown in first picture.

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